Strasbourg 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Strasbourg face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Meinau to face Strasbourg in Ligue 1 (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Strasbourg (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Strasbourg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Strasbourg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Le Havre's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 65% versus Le Havre 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 52% | Le Havre 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Strasbourg surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.08 xG and Le Havre 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.857 / defence 1.009 | Le Havre attack 0.760 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.033. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 52 games and Le Havre's last 14.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 39% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.55 | Draw 2.69 | Le Havre 4.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 60% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 39% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Strasbourg 1.08 / Le Havre 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.857 / def 1.009 | Le Havre attack 0.760 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Le Havre xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Le Havre kick off?
Strasbourg vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Le Havre?
Strasbourg 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Strasbourg vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Le Havre part of?
Strasbourg vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 39% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Strasbourg and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Strasbourg vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Strasbourg's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.76x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 52 games and Le Havre's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
39%
2.55
37%
2.69
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
1.87
0.79
Le Havre xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.79 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 12W 18D 22L from 52 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 7L across 52 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 7W 10D 9L from their last 26 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 10W 13D 3L across their last 26 away games, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Strasbourg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.12 scored and 0.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Strasbourg (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Strasbourg vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 12W 18D 22L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 23W 22D 7L in their last 52 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.19 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Le Havre in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Strasbourg won Le Havre 0-3 Strasbourg on 15 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
0
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 3, Le Havre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Le Havre 2-1 Strasbourg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 65%, Le Havre 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Strasbourg) and 31% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 46%; Le Havre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 42% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Strasbourg and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Strasbourg's recent games and 31% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Le Havre 2-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.08 xG and Le Havre 0.79 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 39% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 24%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 52%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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