Le Havre 0-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Paris Saint Germain have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 37% versus Paris Saint Germain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 31% | Paris Saint Germain 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.80 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.716 / defence 0.918 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.481 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.079. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.481, which lifts their away xG to 1.47. Data: built from Le Havre's last 13 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 51.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 18% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 51%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.45 | Draw 3.27 | Paris Saint Germain 1.96. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 20% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 18% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Le Havre 0.80 / Paris Saint Germain 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.716 / def 0.918 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.481 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 18% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.48x) against Le Havre's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 13 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
18%
5.45
31%
3.27
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.26
1.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
5.45
18%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
4%
23.62
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.47 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 22D 6L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.25 PPG from 51 outings (36W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 13W 9D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.32 points per game from their last 25 away games (18W 4D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.41 scored and 1.00 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's attacking output running into Le Havre's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Paris Saint Germain in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 23W 22D 6L in their last 51 games (1.78 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 36W 7D 8L in their last 51 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.92 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 32%, Paris Saint Germain 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Le Havre) and 72% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 40%; Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Le Havre's recent matches and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Le Havre's recent games and 72% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Le Havre's recent matches and 76% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 0-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.80 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.47 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.48 / defence 0.81, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 18% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 51%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 31%, Paris Saint Germain 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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