Rennes 3-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rennes's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rennes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Reims — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Rennes's games and 60% of Reims's (from Rennes's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Rennes have won 2, Reims 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Rennes 3–0 Reims — a Rennes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Reims 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rennes surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Reims have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Reims surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Rennes recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.38 xG and Reims 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.153 / defence 1.169 | Reims attack 1.145 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Data: built from Rennes's last 50 games and Reims's last 50.
Result probabilities: Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.97 | Draw 3.33 | Reims 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Reims 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Rennes 1.38 / Reims 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.153 / def 1.169 | Reims attack 1.145 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Reims (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Reims xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Reims FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Reims kick off?
Rennes vs Reims kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Reims?
Rennes 3 - 1 Reims.
Where is Rennes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Reims part of?
Rennes vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 34% chance of winning, Reims a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rennes and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.15) and Reims's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 50 games and Reims's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.33
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.82
1.44
Reims xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rennes and 1.44 for Reims, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rennes's recent record stands at 23W 11D 16L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 15L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.60 PPG, Reims on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 17W 3D 5L from their last 25 home games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 11D 7L across their last 25 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.24 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Reims
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Reims in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Reims away?
Rennes's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.16 PPG; Reims away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Rennes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Reims in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won Rennes 3-0 Reims.
Rennes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 4, Reims have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 52%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Rennes) and 44% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Reims in 32%; Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Reims matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rennes's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rennes's matches and 44% of Reims's.
Do Rennes and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Rennes's recent matches and 64% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Reims 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.38 xG and Reims 1.44 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Reims attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 34% | Draw 30% | Reims 36%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.60 PPG, Reims 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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