Nice 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Nice at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Toulouse encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Nice and Toulouse meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Nice's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Nice at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Toulouse have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Nice's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Nice, 0 for Toulouse and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Nice 0–0 Toulouse — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 46% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 32% | Toulouse 56%). Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Nice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.29 xG and Toulouse 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.931 / defence 0.682 | Toulouse attack 0.896 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.044. Nice have a tight defence (rating 0.682), which is pulling Toulouse's projected output down. Data: built from Nice's last 50 games and Toulouse's last 50.

Result probabilities: Nice 50% | Draw 34% | Toulouse 16%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.00 | Draw 2.94 | Toulouse 6.25. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nice's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nice 40% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).

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