Paris FC vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris FC face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Estac Troyes meet at Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC at Stade Jean Bouin this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Jean Bouin than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Paris FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Paris FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Estac Troyes — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Paris FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 60% versus Estac Troyes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 58% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 2.07 xG and Estac Troyes 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.237 / defence 0.939 | Estac Troyes attack 0.631 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Data: 43 Paris FC games / 9 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 66% | Draw 22% | Estac Troyes 12%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Estac Troyes 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | Estac Troyes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 66% | Draw 22% | Estac Troyes 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Paris FC 2.07 / Estac Troyes 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.237 / def 0.939 | Estac Troyes attack 0.631 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Paris FC vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stade Jean Bouin.
Where is Paris FC vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Estac Troyes part of?
Paris FC vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 66% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Paris FC and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Paris FC 3W | Draws 2 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Estac Troyes in?
Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.24) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.63x) against Paris FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.61
12%
8.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.86
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
8.34
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
66.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.78 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 16W 13D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 22W 9D 12L from 43 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Paris FC against 1.74 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.56 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Estac Troyes away?
Paris FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won 0-3 on 21 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Estac Troyes?
From 5 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Estac Troyes?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 52%, Estac Troyes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Paris FC) and 43% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Paris FC's recent matches and 43% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Paris FC's recent games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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