Paris FC vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Jean Bouin plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 30 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stade Jean Bouin — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Jean Bouin than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Paris FC's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Paris FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Paris FC 1W, Auxerre 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 60% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 58% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 3.06 xG and Auxerre 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.237 / defence 0.939 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Paris FC games / 43 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 71% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 13%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Auxerre 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.06 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 60% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 71% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 71% | xG Paris FC 3.06 / Auxerre 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.237 / def 0.939 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.06
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Auxerre xG
71%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stade Jean Bouin.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 71% chance of winning, Auxerre a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in?
Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.06. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.10x) against Paris FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 4-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.37
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
4 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.06
Paris FC xG
Total xG
4.42
1.36
Auxerre xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.37
16%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
5%
21.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
1%
158.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 3.06 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.36 for Auxerre, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 16W 13D 14L from 43 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 21L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Paris FC against 1.02 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.09 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Auxerre away?
Paris FC's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.73 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Paris FC
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Auxerre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Paris FC and 54% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Paris FC's games and 59% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Paris FC's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris FC and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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