Nice 2-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 35%, yet in-form Monaco provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nice vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Nice welcome Monaco to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's home record at Allianz Riviera: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monaco have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nice, 3 for Monaco and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Monaco 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 38% | Monaco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.47 xG and Monaco 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.307 / defence 0.799 | Monaco attack 1.302 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.403. Nice carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Monaco's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Nice's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Nice games / 42 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 35% | Draw 31% | Monaco 34%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Monaco 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 35% | Draw 31% | Monaco 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Nice 1.47 / Monaco 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.307 / def 0.799 | Monaco attack 1.302 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Nice (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Monaco xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Monaco kick off?
Nice vs Monaco kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Monaco?
Nice 2 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Nice vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Monaco part of?
Nice vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 35% chance of winning, Monaco a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nice and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 1 | Monaco 3W.
What form are Nice and Monaco in?
Nice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Monaco (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Nice vs Monaco?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.31x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.24
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Nice xG
Total xG
2.93
1.46
Monaco xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nice and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Nice and 1.46 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Nice have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 17W 14D 11L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 26W 9D 7L from 42 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 13W 4D 3L from 20 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.95 scored and 1.10 conceded. Monaco's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Monaco in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Monaco in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Monaco have gone 26W 9D 7L in their last 42 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.80 PPG; Monaco away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Nice or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Monaco in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Monaco have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 40%, Monaco 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nice) and 70% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nice's recent matches and 65% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nice's recent games and 70% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Monaco tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Monaco in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Monaco 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Monaco 2-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.47 xG and Monaco 1.46 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.31 / defence 0.80 against Monaco attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 35% | Draw 31% | Monaco 34%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 38%, Monaco 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Nice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.