Lyon 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Lyon welcome Reims to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon at Groupama Stadium this season: 4W 3D 0L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lyon are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lyon register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant matches, Reims in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Reims in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 71% and Reims 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 57% | Reims 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.49 xG and Reims 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.139 / defence 1.117 | Reims attack 0.798 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.215. Data: 14 Lyon games / 15 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 45% | Draw 29% | Reims 26%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 3.85. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 86% | Reims 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 45% | Draw 29% | Reims 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lyon 1.49 / Reims 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.139 / def 1.117 | Reims attack 0.798 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Lyon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Reims xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Reims kick off?
Lyon vs Reims kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Reims?
Lyon 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Lyon vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Reims part of?
Lyon vs Reims is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 45% chance of winning, Reims a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lyon and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Reims in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lyon's attack at 1.14x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.48
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.57
1.08
Reims xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lyon and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lyon and 1.08 for Reims, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lyon come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 4D 4L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lyon's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reims have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lyon are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Reims in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Reims have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Reims away?
Lyon's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.14 PPG; Reims away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lyon and Reims runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lyon
4
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Reims have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 86%, Reims at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 29% (Reims).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Lyon's games and 71% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 29% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Reims tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Reims in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Lyon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Lyon 1-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.49 xG and Reims 1.08 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Reims attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 45% | Draw 29% | Reims 26%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 57%, Reims 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.