Le Havre 1-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Nice travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nice — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 2 for Nice and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Nice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Nice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.02 xG and Nice 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.605 / defence 1.292 | Nice attack 1.071 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.315. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Le Havre games / 55 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 19% | Draw 27% | Nice 54%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Nice 1.85. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Nice 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 19% | Draw 27% | Nice 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Le Havre 1.02 / Nice 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.605 / def 1.292 | Nice attack 1.071 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Nice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Nice xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nice kick off?
Le Havre vs Nice kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nice?
Le Havre 1 - 3 Nice.
Where is Le Havre vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nice part of?
Le Havre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 19% chance of winning, Nice a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Le Havre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Nice 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Nice in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Nice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.60x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
19%
5.31
27%
3.70
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.84
1.82
Nice xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
3%
32.78
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.82 for Nice, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 12W 13D 30L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice's form line: 25W 17D 13L from 55 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nice are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (8W 2D 17L).
On the road, Nice have gone 9W 9D 9L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nice in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 12W 13D 30L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Nice have gone 25W 17D 13L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.96 PPG; Nice away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Nice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 37%, Nice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Le Havre) and 48% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 52% of games; Nice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Le Havre's recent matches and 56% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nice tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Nice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Le Havre 1-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.02 xG and Nice 1.82 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.60 / defence 1.29 against Nice attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 19% | Draw 27% | Nice 54%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Nice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.