Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Le Havre's 30% rate and Toulouse's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 2, Toulouse 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.608 / defence 1.354 | Toulouse attack 0.916 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.331. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Le Havre games / 56 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Toulouse 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Toulouse 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Le Havre 0.77 / Toulouse 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.608 / def 1.354 | Toulouse attack 0.916 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Toulouse xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 1 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 16% chance of winning, Toulouse a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.61) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
16%
6.29
27%
3.72
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.42
1.65
Toulouse xG
6.29
16%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
32.81
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.7 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.65 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 12W 13D 31L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 18W 16D 22L from 56 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.88 PPG, Toulouse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (8W 2D 17L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.96 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 37%, Toulouse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Le Havre) and 52% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 52% of games; Toulouse in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Le Havre's recent matches and 44% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Le Havre's recent games and 52% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Le Havre 1-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.61 / defence 1.35 against Toulouse attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.88 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.