Estac Troyes vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Le Havre travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estac Troyes 0.80 PPG, Le Havre 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 49% versus Le Havre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Le Havre 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.38 xG and Le Havre 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.728 / defence 1.367 | Le Havre attack 1.116 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Estac Troyes games / 43 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 25% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 51%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 1.96. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 25% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Estac Troyes 1.38 / Le Havre 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.728 / def 1.367 | Le Havre attack 1.116 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Le Havre xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Le Havre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 25% chance of winning, Le Havre a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Estac Troyes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Le Havre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
25%
3.95
24%
4.23
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.39
2.01
Le Havre xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
3%
29.46
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 2.01 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 22W 9D 12L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 7W 16D 20L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (14W 2D 5L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.95 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Le Havre away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.10 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Le Havre in 21%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 52%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Estac Troyes) and 29% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.