Auxerre 1-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Nice meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Nice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Nice — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 65% versus Nice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Nice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.91 xG and Nice 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.749 / defence 1.132 | Nice attack 0.825 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.446. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Auxerre games / 48 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 29% | Nice 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 2.17. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 60% | Nice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 29% | Nice 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Auxerre 0.91 / Nice 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.749 / def 1.132 | Nice attack 0.825 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Nice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Nice xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nice kick off?
Auxerre vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Nice.
Where is Auxerre vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nice part of?
Auxerre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 25% chance of winning, Nice a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Auxerre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Nice in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.75) and Nice's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.82x) against Auxerre's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
25%
4.07
29%
3.44
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.26
1.35
Nice xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.1 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.35 for Nice, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre's recent record stands at 21W 15D 12L from 48 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 16L across 48 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Auxerre against 1.62 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 12W 4D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.27 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nice in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 15D 12L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Nice have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nice away?
Auxerre's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.67 PPG; Nice away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Nice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Auxerre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
From 7 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Nice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Auxerre 1-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nice?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 62%, Nice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 46% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nice in 42%; Nice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Auxerre's recent matches and 33% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Auxerre's recent games and 46% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nice tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Nice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Nice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 11, as Auxerre and Nice drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.91 xG and Nice 1.35 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Nice attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 25% | Draw 29% | Nice 46%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Nice 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.62 PPG, Nice 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.