Auxerre 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.00 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Angers and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Angers in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 57% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 59% | Angers 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.61 xG and Angers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.196 / defence 0.927 | Angers attack 0.760 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.381. Data: 11 Auxerre games / 11 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Angers 4.35. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Angers 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Auxerre 1.61 / Angers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.196 / def 0.927 | Angers attack 0.760 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Angers xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 52% chance of winning, Angers a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 3 | Angers 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Angers in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Auxerre vs Angers?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.20) and Angers's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Angers xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
22.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.97 for Angers, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 49 games, going 26W 12D 11L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.59 PPG from 49 outings (22W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.84 PPG, Angers on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.41 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Angers have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.21 PPG; Angers away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Angers in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Angers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Auxerre 3-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Angers?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 46%, Angers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 33% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Angers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Angers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Angers 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.61 xG and Angers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Angers attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 59%, Angers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.84 PPG, Angers 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.