Auxerre 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Angers have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.00 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Angers and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Auxerre 1–0 Angers — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Angers in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 57% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 59% | Angers 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.61 xG and Angers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.196 / defence 0.927 | Angers attack 0.760 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.381. Angers's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Auxerre's last 11 games and Angers's last 11.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.92 | Draw 3.94 | Angers 4.43. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 40% (last 10 home games) | Angers 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Auxerre 1.61 / Angers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.196 / def 0.927 | Angers attack 0.760 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Angers xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Angers FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 52% chance of winning, Angers a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.20) and Angers's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 11 games and Angers's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Angers xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
22.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.97 for Angers, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 49 games, going 26W 12D 11L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.59 PPG from 49 outings (22W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.84 PPG, Angers on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.41 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Angers have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.21 PPG; Angers away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Angers in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
3
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 46%, Angers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 33% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Angers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Auxerre's recent matches and 67% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Angers 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.61 xG and Angers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Angers attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 52% | Draw 25% | Angers 23%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 59%, Angers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.84 PPG, Angers 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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