Angers 2-4 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Angers face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Angers (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond Kopa this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris Saint Germain are 1.60 PPG clear of Angers in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Angers register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Paris Saint Germain in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Paris Saint Germain have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Angers's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 52% versus Paris Saint Germain 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 43% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.95 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.894 / defence 1.439 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.315 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.380. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 2.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Angers games / 44 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 11% | Draw 17% | Paris Saint Germain 72%. Fair-value odds: Angers 9.09 | Draw 5.88 | Paris Saint Germain 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 80% | Paris Saint Germain 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 11% | Draw 17% | Paris Saint Germain 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG Angers 0.95 / Paris Saint Germain 2.61 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.894 / def 1.439 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.315 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (72%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Angers xG
Expected Goals
2.61
Paris Saint Germain xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Angers 2 - 4 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Angers vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 11% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 72% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Angers and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (4 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 4W.
What form are Angers and Paris Saint Germain in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Angers's attack rating (0.89) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.31x) against Angers's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.61.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-3 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
11%
9.19
17%
5.95
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 3
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Angers xG
Total xG
3.56
2.61
Paris Saint Germain xG
9.19
11%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
7%
13.63
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
125.24
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Angers and 2.61 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Angers have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 21W 10D 13L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 30W 12D 2L from 44 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Angers have posted 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (14W 3D 5L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 16W 6D 0L from 22 away games — 2.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.50 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 21W 10D 13L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 30W 12D 2L in their last 44 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.05 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Angers or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Angers
0
Draws
8
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Angers 0-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 50%, Paris Saint Germain 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Angers) and 50% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Angers's recent matches and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Angers's recent games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Angers 2-4 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.95 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.61 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 2.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 11% | Draw 17% | Paris Saint Germain 72%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 43%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.