Kooteepee 0-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Haka (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kooteepee face Haka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kooteepee and Haka meet at Arto Tolsa Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kooteepee's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kooteepee at Arto Tolsa Areena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Kooteepee are significantly better at Arto Tolsa Areena than their overall form suggests.
Haka have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haka away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Haka arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Haka have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Kooteepee's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Haka winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Haka have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 41% versus Haka 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 44% | Haka 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.10 xG and Haka 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.629 / defence 1.436 | Haka attack 1.110 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.564. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Kooteepee games / 29 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 15% | Draw 17% | Haka 68%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 6.67 | Draw 5.88 | Haka 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Haka (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 2.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kooteepee 40% | Haka 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 15% | Draw 17% | Haka 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Kooteepee 1.10 / Haka 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.629 / def 1.436 | Haka attack 1.110 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: Haka (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Haka xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Haka kick off?
Kooteepee vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 23 May 2025 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Kooteepee 0 - 0 Haka.
Where is Kooteepee vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Haka part of?
Kooteepee vs Haka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 15% chance of winning, Haka a 68% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kooteepee and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
Record (6 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 1 | Haka 4W.
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.63x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haka's attack (1.11x) against Kooteepee's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.49.
These ratings are built from 7/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
15%
6.69
17%
5.76
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
3.60
2.49
Haka xG
6.69
15%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
8%
12.11
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
1%
81.06
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kooteepee and 2.49 for Haka, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kooteepee come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 5D 17L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kooteepee's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Kooteepee are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.59 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Haka have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.92 PPG; Haka away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kooteepee have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Kooteepee
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 38%, Haka 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kooteepee) and 62% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Haka in 31%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 46% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kooteepee's recent games and 62% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Haka tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kooteepee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 8, as Kooteepee and Haka drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.10 xG and Haka 2.49 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Haka landed 2.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.63 / defence 1.44 against Haka attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 15% | Draw 17% | Haka 68%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, Haka 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.