Ilves 2-3 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
SJK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, SJK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ilves's 2.50 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of SJK's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 4–0 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SJK — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 48% versus SJK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 48% | SJK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.19 xG and SJK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.319 / defence 0.807 | SJK attack 0.949 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.548. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Ilves games / 34 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 60% | Draw 20% | SJK 20%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | SJK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 40% | SJK 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Jun 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 60% | Draw 20% | SJK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Ilves 2.19 / SJK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.319 / def 0.807 | SJK attack 0.949 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Ilves (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
SJK xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 2 - 3 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 60% chance of winning, SJK a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (4 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 2 | SJK 1W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.95x) against Ilves's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.99
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.37
1.19
SJK xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
2%
45.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Ilves and 1.19 for SJK, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 24W 15D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 23W 13D 18L from 54 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Ilves against 1.52 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (14W 7D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 11W 8D 8L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.57 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 61%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while SJK have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.81 PPG; SJK away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SJK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 56%, SJK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ilves and 59% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ilves's recent matches and 52% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ilves's matches and 59% of SJK's.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SJK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Ilves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 2-3 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.19 xG and SJK 1.19 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SJK outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.32 / defence 0.81 against SJK attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 60% | Draw 20% | SJK 20%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, SJK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.61 PPG, SJK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.