Haka 0-4 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 June 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ilves — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Haka have won 4, Ilves 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 63% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 61% | Ilves 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.22 xG and Ilves 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.948 / defence 1.056 | Ilves attack 1.274 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.466. Ilves have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Haka games / 34 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 23% | Draw 22% | Ilves 55%. Fair-value odds: Haka 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Ilves 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 80% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 23% | Draw 22% | Ilves 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Haka 1.22 / Ilves 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.948 / def 1.056 | Ilves attack 1.274 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Ilves (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Ilves xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 0 - 4 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 23% chance of winning, Ilves a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
Record (9 meetings): Haka 4W | Draws 2 | Ilves 3W.
What form are Haka and Ilves in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
23%
4.29
22%
4.59
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Haka xG
Total xG
3.19
1.97
Ilves xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
3%
30.85
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Haka and 1.97 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 16D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.61 PPG from 54 outings (24W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.35 PPG, Ilves on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 9W 13D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.69 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.48 PPG; Ilves away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Haka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 74%, Ilves 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Haka) and 30% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 37%; Ilves in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haka's games and 41% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Haka's recent games and 30% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Ilves in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Haka 0-4 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.22 xG and Ilves 1.97 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Haka fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Ilves attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 23% | Draw 22% | Ilves 55%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 61%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.35 PPG, Ilves 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.