AC Oulu 0-4 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Ilves (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Oulu face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Ilves meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ilves (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Ilves are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ilves, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ilves have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ilves half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 63% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 59% | Ilves 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.30 xG and Ilves 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.880 / defence 1.204 | Ilves attack 1.112 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.564. Data: 41 AC Oulu games / 41 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 22% | Draw 23% | Ilves 55%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Ilves 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 70% | Ilves 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 22% | Draw 23% | Ilves 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG AC Oulu 1.30 / Ilves 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.880 / def 1.204 | Ilves attack 1.112 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: Ilves (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Ilves xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Ilves kick off?
AC Oulu vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
AC Oulu 0 - 4 Ilves.
Where is AC Oulu vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Ilves part of?
AC Oulu vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 22% chance of winning, Ilves a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AC Oulu and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Record (7 meetings): AC Oulu 1W | Draws 1 | Ilves 5W.
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.88x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.11x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
22%
4.48
23%
4.37
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
3.39
2.10
Ilves xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
12%
8.13
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
36.46
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for AC Oulu and 2.10 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 11W 10D 25L from 46 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 10L across 46 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 8W 5D 10L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 11W 5D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ilves in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 11W 10D 25L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Ilves have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.26 PPG; Ilves away: 1.65 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ilves in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, Ilves have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when AC Oulu 1-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 52%, Ilves 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AC Oulu) and 35% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 39% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AC Oulu's recent games and 35% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Ilves tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ilves in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-4 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 0-4 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.30 xG and Ilves 2.10 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 2.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 22% | Draw 23% | Ilves 55%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 59%, Ilves 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.