West Ham 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bournemouth travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at London Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.10 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for West Ham, 0 for Bournemouth and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
West Ham in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 63% and Bournemouth 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 59% | Bournemouth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.31 xG and Bournemouth 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.852 / defence 1.092 | Bournemouth attack 1.232 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.443. Bournemouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 West Ham games / 68 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 26% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 52%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Bournemouth 1.92. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 40% | Bournemouth 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 26% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG West Ham 1.31 / Bournemouth 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.852 / def 1.092 | Bournemouth attack 1.232 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Bournemouth xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Ham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
West Ham 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is West Ham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Bournemouth part of?
West Ham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 26% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both West Ham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 3 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.85) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
26%
3.88
22%
4.53
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.25
1.94
Bournemouth xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.01
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are West Ham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for West Ham and 1.94 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham's recent record stands at 23W 17D 28L from 68 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 26L across 68 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.26 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 12W 10D 12L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 12W 8D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.51 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 23W 17D 28L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 25W 17D 26L in their last 68 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Bournemouth away?
West Ham's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.35 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Ham
6
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Bournemouth?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — West Ham at 59%, Bournemouth at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for West Ham and 79% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of West Ham's games and 74% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of West Ham's matches and 79% of Bournemouth's.
West Ham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Bournemouth finished level at 2-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.31 xG and Bournemouth 1.94 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Bournemouth attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 26% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 52%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 59%, Bournemouth 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.26 PPG, Bournemouth 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.