Tottenham 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Fulham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Tottenham are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Fulham in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 40% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 56% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.91 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.259 / defence 0.830 | Fulham attack 0.732 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.156. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Tottenham games / 5 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 65% | Draw 23% | Fulham 12%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Fulham 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 40% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 65% | Draw 23% | Fulham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Tottenham 1.91 / Fulham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.259 / def 0.830 | Fulham attack 0.732 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Fulham kick off?
Tottenham vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Tottenham 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Tottenham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Fulham part of?
Tottenham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 65% chance of winning, Fulham a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tottenham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in?
Tottenham (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.32
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.61
0.70
Fulham xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
57.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Tottenham and 0.70 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 43 games, going 25W 7D 11L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.91 PPG from 43 outings (24W 10D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.91 PPG, Fulham on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 15W 1D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.71 points per game from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.23 scored and 1.00 conceded. Tottenham's scoring rate against Fulham's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Fulham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 25W 7D 11L in their last 43 games (1.91 PPG), while Fulham have gone 24W 10D 9L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Fulham away?
Tottenham's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.19 PPG; Fulham away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Fulham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 3, Fulham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 38%, Fulham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Tottenham) and 43% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fulham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Tottenham's recent matches and 48% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Tottenham's recent games and 43% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Fulham 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.91 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Fulham attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 65% | Draw 23% | Fulham 12%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 56%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.91 PPG, Fulham 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.