Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tottenham at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Aston Villa travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Tottenham) versus 2.20 (Aston Villa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Tottenham, 2 for Aston Villa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 64% versus Aston Villa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 62% | Aston Villa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.67 xG and Aston Villa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.024 / defence 1.047 | Aston Villa attack 0.811 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.375. Data: 50 Tottenham games / 50 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 49% | Draw 24% | Aston Villa 27%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Aston Villa 3.70. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 70% | Aston Villa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 49% | Draw 24% | Aston Villa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Tottenham 1.67 / Aston Villa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.024 / def 1.047 | Aston Villa attack 0.811 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Aston Villa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Tottenham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Tottenham 1 - 2 Aston Villa.
Where is Tottenham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Aston Villa part of?
Tottenham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 49% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tottenham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Aston Villa?
Record (4 meetings): Tottenham 2W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 2W.
What form are Tottenham and Aston Villa in?
Tottenham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.02) and Aston Villa's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.13
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
Aston Villa xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
19.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.17 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tottenham's recent record stands at 26W 8D 16L from 50 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 16L across 50 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.72 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tottenham have managed 16W 1D 7L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aston Villa's away record stands at 8W 6D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aston Villa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.60 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 26W 8D 16L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 26W 8D 16L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Aston Villa away?
Tottenham's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.04 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Tottenham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tottenham
0
Draws
5
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 5, Aston Villa have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 58%, Aston Villa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Tottenham) and 42% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Tottenham's recent matches and 50% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Tottenham's recent games and 42% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.67 xG and Aston Villa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aston Villa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Aston Villa attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 49% | Draw 24% | Aston Villa 27%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Aston Villa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 62%, Aston Villa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.72 PPG, Aston Villa 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.