Sheffield Utd 1-3 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sheffield Utd face Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sheffield Utd welcome Bournemouth to Bramall Lane in Premier League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sheffield Utd stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sheffield Utd at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sheffield Utd are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Sheffield Utd) versus 0.80 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 for Bournemouth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2022, ended Sheffield Utd 0–0 Bournemouth — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sheffield Utd in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 48% versus Bournemouth 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 48% | Bournemouth 52%). Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Sheffield Utd recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.775 / defence 1.521 | Bournemouth attack 0.886 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.360. Sheffield Utd's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.86. Bournemouth's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sheffield Utd's projected output up. Sheffield Utd's defence rating of 1.521 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 12 games and Bournemouth's last 50.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 40% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 39%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.52 | Draw 4.62 | Bournemouth 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 60% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 40% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Sheffield Utd 1.86 / Bournemouth 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.775 / def 1.521 | Bournemouth attack 0.886 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Bournemouth xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 3 Bournemouth.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 40% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sheffield Utd's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 12 games and Bournemouth's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
40%
2.52
22%
4.62
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
3.69
1.83
Bournemouth xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.83 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 50 games, going 24W 7D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 0.96 PPG from 50 outings (13W 9D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Sheffield Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 13W 3D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 0.96 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 24W 7D 19L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 13W 9D 28L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Bournemouth away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.75 PPG; Bournemouth away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sheffield Utd's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sheffield Utd
2
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Bournemouth 2-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 50%, Bournemouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sheffield Utd) and 58% (Bournemouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 42% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 58% of Bournemouth's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 79% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Sheffield Utd 1-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.83 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.78 / defence 1.52 against Bournemouth attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 40% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 39%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 48%, Bournemouth 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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