Fulham 0-0 Southampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fulham at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Southampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Southampton at Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Fulham have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Southampton — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Southampton have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Fulham are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fulham, 0 for Southampton and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Fulham 2–0 Southampton — a Fulham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Southampton in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Southampton 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Southampton 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.68 xG and Southampton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.990 / defence 1.068 | Southampton attack 0.544 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.483. Southampton's attack rating of 0.544 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Fulham's last 54 games and Southampton's last 16.
Result probabilities: Fulham 55% | Draw 28% | Southampton 17%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.82 | Draw 3.62 | Southampton 5.78. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fulham 90% (last 10 home games) | Southampton 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Southampton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 55% | Draw 28% | Southampton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Fulham 1.68 / Southampton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.990 / def 1.068 | Southampton attack 0.544 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Fulham (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Southampton xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Southampton FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Southampton kick off?
Fulham vs Southampton kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Southampton?
Fulham 0 - 0 Southampton.
Where is Fulham vs Southampton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Southampton part of?
Fulham vs Southampton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Southampton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 55% chance of winning, Southampton a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Southampton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fulham and Southampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Fulham vs Southampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fulham's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Southampton's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Southampton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 54 games and Southampton's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.62
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.55
0.86
Southampton xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
31.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Southampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Southampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Southampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fulham and 0.86 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Southampton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Southampton, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 20L across 54 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.31 PPG, Southampton on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 13W 4D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Southampton's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Southampton are on 1.57 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Southampton
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Southampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Southampton
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Southampton Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Southampton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Southampton have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Southampton away?
Fulham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.59 PPG; Southampton away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham's record when hosting Southampton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fulham
1
Draws
0
Southampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Southampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Southampton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 3, Southampton have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Southampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Southampton 1-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Southampton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Southampton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 41% (Southampton).
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 26% of games; Southampton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Southampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Southampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Southampton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 56% of Southampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Southampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fulham's recent games and 41% of Southampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Southampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Fulham's recent matches and 70% of Southampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fulham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 17, as Fulham and Southampton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.68 xG and Southampton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Southampton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Southampton attack 0.54 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 55% | Draw 28% | Southampton 17%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Southampton 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Southampton's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.31 PPG, Southampton 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Southampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 17
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →