Everton 0-0 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Chelsea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Chelsea meet at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chelsea's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chelsea away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chelsea arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Everton, 2 for Chelsea and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 0–6 with Chelsea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chelsea — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 38% versus Chelsea 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Chelsea 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.38 xG and Chelsea 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.926 / defence 0.731 | Chelsea attack 1.465 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.483. Chelsea have an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Everton's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Everton games / 54 Chelsea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 32% | Draw 28% | Chelsea 41%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Chelsea 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chelsea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Chelsea 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 32% | Draw 28% | Chelsea 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Everton 1.38 / Chelsea 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.926 / def 0.731 | Chelsea attack 1.465 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Chelsea xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Chelsea kick off?
Everton vs Chelsea kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton 0 - 0 Chelsea.
Where is Everton vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Chelsea part of?
Everton vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 32% chance of winning, Chelsea a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Everton and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 2 | Chelsea 2W.
What form are Everton and Chelsea in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Chelsea (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.93x the league average against Chelsea's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chelsea's attack (1.47x) against Everton's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.60
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Everton xG
Total xG
2.97
1.59
Chelsea xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Everton and 1.59 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Chelsea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton's recent record stands at 16W 15D 22L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 13L across 53 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chelsea by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chelsea's away record stands at 13W 6D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 2.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea in 68%.
Defensively: Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Chelsea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 28W 12D 13L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.42 PPG; Chelsea away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Everton or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Chelsea in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chelsea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
4
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Chelsea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 35%, Chelsea 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 77% (Chelsea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Chelsea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 35% of Everton's games and 77% of Chelsea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Everton's matches and 77% of Chelsea's.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 17, as Everton and Chelsea drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.38 xG and Chelsea 1.59 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chelsea landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.73 against Chelsea attack 1.47 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 32% | Draw 28% | Chelsea 41%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Chelsea 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chelsea's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.