Fulham 1-3 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 36 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fulham have won 2, Everton 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Everton trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 59% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Everton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.06 xG and Everton 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.975 / defence 1.019 | Everton attack 0.702 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.395. Everton's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Fulham games / 73 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 36% | Draw 31% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Everton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Everton 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 36% | Draw 31% | Everton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Fulham 1.06 / Everton 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.975 / def 1.019 | Everton attack 0.702 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Fulham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Everton xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Everton?
Fulham 1 - 3 Everton.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 36% chance of winning, Everton a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 3 | Everton 0W.
What form are Fulham and Everton in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Everton (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.25
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.05
1.00
Everton xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Fulham and 1.00 for Everton, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 27W 17D 29L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 21W 24D 28L from 73 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.34 PPG, Everton on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (16W 7D 13L).
On the road, Everton have gone 9W 11D 16L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.04 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 17D 29L in their last 73 games (1.34 PPG), while Everton have gone 21W 24D 28L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Everton away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Fulham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Everton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Everton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fulham) and 36% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games; Everton in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fulham's recent matches and 42% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fulham's recent games and 36% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Fulham 1-3 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.06 xG and Everton 1.00 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.73, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 36% | Draw 31% | Everton 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Everton 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Everton 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.