Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.70 PPG, Bournemouth 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bournemouth trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Bournemouth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Bournemouth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.36 xG and Bournemouth 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.924 / defence 1.020 | Bournemouth attack 1.189 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.458. Data: 56 Fulham games / 56 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Bournemouth 2.22. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Fulham 1.36 / Bournemouth 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.924 / def 1.020 | Bournemouth attack 1.189 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Bournemouth xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 28% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Record (6 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 3 | Bournemouth 2W.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.92) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
28%
3.61
27%
3.69
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.13
1.77
Bournemouth xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fulham and 1.77 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 15D 21L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.34 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 10W 5D 13L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.45 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 54%, Bournemouth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fulham and 75% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fulham's games and 68% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Fulham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 19, as Fulham and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.36 xG and Bournemouth 1.77 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 28% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 45%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Bournemouth 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.