Fulham 1-3 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fulham at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Aston Villa.

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Full Analysis

Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Aston Villa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Aston Villa away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Fulham, 1.50 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Aston Villa in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Aston Villa edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Fulham 1–2 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 51% versus Aston Villa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fulham 60% | Aston Villa 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Aston Villa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.72 xG and Aston Villa 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.055 / defence 0.919 | Aston Villa attack 1.080 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.439. Data: built from Fulham's last 45 games and Aston Villa's last 45.

Result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.36 | Draw 3.58 | Aston Villa 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 70% (last 10 away games).

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