Aston Villa 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aston Villa vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Aston Villa welcome Bournemouth to Villa Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aston Villa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa at Villa Park this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Aston Villa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Aston Villa, 1 for Bournemouth and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aston Villa 67% and Bournemouth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aston Villa 72% | Bournemouth 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.85 xG and Bournemouth 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.061 / defence 0.972 | Bournemouth attack 0.851 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.449. Data: 46 Aston Villa games / 46 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Bournemouth 4.35. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aston Villa 60% | Bournemouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Aston Villa 1.85 / Bournemouth 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.061 / def 0.972 | Bournemouth attack 0.851 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bournemouth xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kick off?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth part of?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 51% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aston Villa and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Record (4 meetings): Aston Villa 2W | Draws 1 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.06) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.96
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
3.05
1.20
Bournemouth xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
27.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.20 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 25W 10D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bournemouth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 7W 4D 12L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.39 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aston Villa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Bournemouth away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.04 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aston Villa and Bournemouth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 4, Bournemouth have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aston Villa at 70%, Bournemouth at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Aston Villa and 74% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Aston Villa's games and 65% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Aston Villa's matches and 74% of Bournemouth's.
Aston Villa and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.85 xG and Bournemouth 1.20 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 72%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.