Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Everton at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Crystal Palace encounter.

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Match Analysis

Everton host Crystal Palace at Goodison Park in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 19 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Everton — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Crystal Palace away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.20 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Everton hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Crystal Palace and 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Everton 3–2 Crystal Palace — a Everton win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Everton and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Everton trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Crystal Palace trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Crystal Palace 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Crystal Palace 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Crystal Palace have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.75 xG and Crystal Palace 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.823 / defence 0.822 | Crystal Palace attack 0.771 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.580. Crystal Palace's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton's projected output up. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Everton's last 62 games and Crystal Palace's last 62.

Result probabilities: Everton 54% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.85 | Draw 3.97 | Crystal Palace 4.81. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Everton 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton 40% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 away games).

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