Brighton 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brighton at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brighton face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to American Express Stadium to face Brighton in Premier League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Brighton's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Brighton have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brighton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Everton away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Brighton against 1.00 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Brighton, 2 for Everton and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Brighton 1–1 Everton — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brighton — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Everton — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brighton 68% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brighton 67% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.63 xG and Everton 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 1.116 / defence 0.854 | Everton attack 0.716 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.571. Everton's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Brighton's last 63 games and Everton's last 63.
Result probabilities: Brighton 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 21%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 1.92 | Draw 3.78 | Everton 4.69. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brighton are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brighton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brighton 90% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: American Express Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Brighton 1.63 / Everton 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 1.116 / def 0.854 | Everton attack 0.716 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.571 • Poisson stance: Brighton (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Everton xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brighton vs Everton FAQs
What time does Brighton vs Everton kick off?
Brighton vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at American Express Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Everton?
Brighton 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Brighton vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at American Express Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Everton part of?
Brighton vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 52% chance of winning, Everton a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Brighton and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brighton vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brighton's attack at 1.12x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.72x) against Brighton's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Brighton's last 63 games and Everton's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.78
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Brighton xG
Total xG
2.59
0.96
Everton xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
23.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brighton vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brighton and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Brighton and 0.96 for Everton, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Brighton have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 28W 16D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 16W 18D 29L from 63 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Brighton are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brighton have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 9D 6L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 11D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brighton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brighton are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Everton
Blended
Brighton (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brighton
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Brighton vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Brighton and Everton in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 28W 16D 19L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 18D 29L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Everton away?
Brighton's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.84 PPG; Everton away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Brighton and Everton, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won Brighton 1-5 Everton on 8 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brighton have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brighton
3
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Brighton vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brighton have won 3, Everton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Brighton 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 61%, Everton 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Brighton) and 45% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Brighton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brighton vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brighton and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Brighton's recent matches and 45% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brighton and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Brighton's recent games and 45% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brighton and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Brighton's recent matches and 68% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brighton and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton and Everton finished level at 1-1 at American Express Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.63 xG and Everton 0.96 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Everton attack 0.72 / defence 0.87, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 21%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 67%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brighton arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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