Bournemouth 1-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Everton meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bournemouth's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bournemouth. A 0.90 PPG lead over Everton (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bournemouth lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 61% versus Everton 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 66% | Everton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.897 / defence 0.700 | Everton attack 0.603 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.477. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Bournemouth games / 56 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 51% | Draw 34% | Everton 16%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.96 | Draw 2.94 | Everton 6.25. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 60% | Everton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 51% | Draw 34% | Everton 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Bournemouth 1.30 / Everton 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.897 / def 0.700 | Everton attack 0.603 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Everton xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Everton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Bournemouth 1 - 0 Everton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Everton part of?
Bournemouth vs Everton is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of winning, Everton a 16% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bournemouth and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Bournemouth 3W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Everton (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.60x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
51%
1.97
34%
2.99
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
1.92
0.62
Everton xG
1.97
51%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.62 for Everton, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 14D 21L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 16W 17D 23L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.16 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Everton have gone 6W 9D 12L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Everton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Everton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
1
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
From 9 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Everton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Everton?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 52%, Everton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bournemouth) and 41% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 44% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bournemouth's recent games and 41% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Everton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Everton 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.62 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.70 against Everton attack 0.60 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 51% | Draw 34% | Everton 16%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, Everton 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.38 PPG, Everton 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.