Bournemouth 0-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 38%, yet in-form Aston Villa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bournemouth vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Aston Villa travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Aston Villa — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aston Villa are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 1, Aston Villa 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Aston Villa trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and Aston Villa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 64% | Aston Villa 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Aston Villa 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.851 / defence 0.820 | Aston Villa attack 1.015 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.385. Data: 73 Bournemouth games / 73 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 38% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 34%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Aston Villa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aston Villa (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 40% | Aston Villa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 38% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bournemouth 1.22 / Aston Villa 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.851 / def 0.820 | Aston Villa attack 1.015 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Aston Villa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa part of?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 38% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bournemouth and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Record (5 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 2 | Aston Villa 2W.
What form are Bournemouth and Aston Villa in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.85) and Aston Villa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.53
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Aston Villa xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.15 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 20D 26L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 37W 17D 19L from 73 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.38 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 15W 6D 15L from 36 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.79 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Aston Villa in 66%.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 27W 20D 26L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 37W 17D 19L in their last 73 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Aston Villa away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.44 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
3
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Aston Villa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 50%, Aston Villa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bournemouth) and 69% (Aston Villa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 56% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bournemouth's matches and 69% of Aston Villa's.
Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Aston Villa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Aston Villa attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 38% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Aston Villa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 64%, Aston Villa 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Aston Villa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.38 PPG, Aston Villa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Aston Villa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.