Wrexham 2-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wrexham vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to STōK Cae Ras to face Wrexham in League Two (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Wrexham (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Wrexham's home record over their last 8 home games: 5W 2D 1L (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 3.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Wrexham's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gillingham half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 62% versus Gillingham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 56% | Gillingham 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.92 xG and Gillingham 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.353 / defence 1.396 | Gillingham attack 0.779 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.308. Wrexham carry an above-average attack rating of 1.353 — their 1.92 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Wrexham's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gillingham's projected output up. Data: built from Wrexham's last 16 games and Gillingham's last 62.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 49% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 29%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.03 | Draw 4.51 | Gillingham 3.50. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 8 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wrexham 88% (last 8 home games) | Gillingham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 49% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Wrexham 1.92 / Gillingham 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.353 / def 1.396 | Gillingham attack 0.779 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gillingham xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Gillingham kick off?
Wrexham vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Gillingham?
Wrexham 2 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Wrexham vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Gillingham part of?
Wrexham vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 49% chance of winning, Gillingham a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Wrexham and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wrexham vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.35) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.78x) against Wrexham's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 16 games and Gillingham's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
49%
2.03
22%
4.51
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.34
1.42
Gillingham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.42 for Gillingham, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 8W 6D 2L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 8W 1D 7L from 16 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Wrexham against 1.56 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 8 home games (5W 2D 1L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 4W 0D 4L from their last 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
Wrexham (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Wrexham vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 8W 6D 2L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 8W 1D 7L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Gillingham away?
Wrexham's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.12 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gillingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Wrexham and Gillingham, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
0
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Gillingham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 1, Gillingham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Gillingham 1-0 Wrexham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 88%, Gillingham 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wrexham and 25% for Gillingham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Gillingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Wrexham's games and 25% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wrexham and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wrexham's matches and 25% of Gillingham's.
Do Wrexham and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Wrexham's recent matches and 88% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Gillingham 2-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.92 xG and Gillingham 1.42 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gillingham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.35 / defence 1.40 against Gillingham attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 49% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 29%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 56%, Gillingham 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.88 PPG, Gillingham 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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