Swindon Town 2-4 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swindon Town vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 17 as Swindon Town welcome Stockport County to The County Ground. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Swindon Town have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town at The County Ground this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Swindon Town are significantly better at The County Ground than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 League Two matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 3.00 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Swindon Town's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swindon Town, 1 for Stockport County and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Swindon Town trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stockport County trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 55% versus Stockport County 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 53% | Stockport County 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.49 xG and Stockport County 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.176 / defence 0.882 | Stockport County attack 1.345 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.308. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Swindon Town games / 62 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 40% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Swindon Town 1.49 / Stockport County 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.176 / def 0.882 | Stockport County attack 1.345 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Stockport County xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Stockport County kick off?
Swindon Town vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Stockport County?
Swindon Town 2 - 4 Stockport County.
Where is Swindon Town vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Stockport County part of?
Swindon Town vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 37% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Swindon Town and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Swindon Town 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Swindon Town and Stockport County in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.15
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.04
1.55
Stockport County xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.55 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 18D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.85 PPG from 62 outings (33W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swindon Town's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.56 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 games (1.35 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 33W 16D 13L in their last 62 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.63 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stockport County in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swindon Town and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swindon Town's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swindon Town
2
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Stockport County 0-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 43%, Stockport County 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swindon Town) and 50% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stockport County in 33%; Swindon Town have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 53% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swindon Town's recent games and 50% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Stockport County tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Swindon Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Swindon Town 2-4 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.49 xG and Stockport County 1.55 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Stockport County attack 1.34 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 53%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.