Walsall 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Walsall (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Walsall face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 16 as Walsall welcome Gillingham to Poundland Bescot Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Walsall stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Walsall's home record at Poundland Bescot Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Walsall are significantly better at Poundland Bescot Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gillingham — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Walsall carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Walsall have won 2, Gillingham 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Walsall in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 61% versus Gillingham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 60% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 2.04 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.494 / defence 1.060 | Gillingham attack 0.693 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.153. Walsall carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 75 Walsall games / 74 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 64% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 14%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Gillingham 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Walsall (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 70% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 64% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Walsall 2.04 / Gillingham 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.494 / def 1.060 | Gillingham attack 0.693 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Walsall (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gillingham xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Gillingham kick off?
Walsall vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Gillingham?
Walsall 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Walsall vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Gillingham part of?
Walsall vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 64% chance of winning, Gillingham a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Walsall and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Gillingham?
Record (4 meetings): Walsall 2W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Walsall and Gillingham in?
Walsall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Walsall's attack at 1.49x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.60
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.88
0.85
Gillingham xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
55.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Walsall and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Walsall and 0.85 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall come into this having played 74 games, going 36W 16D 22L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.30 PPG from 74 outings (27W 15D 32L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.68 PPG, Gillingham on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Walsall's home form reads 22W 9D 6L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.11 points per game from 37 outings (12W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.96 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 36W 16D 22L in their last 74 games (1.68 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 27W 15D 32L in their last 74 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Gillingham away?
Walsall's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 2.03 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Walsall or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Walsall and Gillingham runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Walsall's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Walsall
5
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Gillingham?
From 9 meetings on record, Walsall have won 3, Gillingham have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gillingham 0-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Gillingham?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 65%, Gillingham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Walsall) and 32% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Walsall's recent matches and 38% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Walsall's recent games and 32% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Gillingham tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 2.04 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.49 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 64% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 14%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 60%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.68 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.