Sutton Utd 1-2 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 46%, yet in-form Wrexham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sutton Utd vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VBS Community Stadium plays host to Sutton Utd versus Wrexham in League Two, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sutton Utd have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at VBS Community Stadium, Sutton Utd have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wrexham (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wrexham's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Wrexham are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sutton Utd 0W, Wrexham 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Wrexham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sutton Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wrexham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 62% versus Wrexham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 45% | Wrexham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.43 xG and Wrexham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 0.895 / defence 1.064 | Wrexham attack 0.709 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Data: 77 Sutton Utd games / 29 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 46% | Draw 28% | Wrexham 26%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Wrexham 3.85. Sutton Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sutton Utd as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sutton Utd 80% | Wrexham 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Wrexham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 46% | Draw 28% | Wrexham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Sutton Utd 1.43 / Wrexham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 0.895 / def 1.064 | Wrexham attack 0.709 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wrexham xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Wrexham kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Wrexham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Wrexham?
Sutton Utd 1 - 2 Wrexham.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Wrexham part of?
Sutton Utd vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 46% chance of winning, Wrexham a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sutton Utd and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Wrexham?
Record (1 meetings): Sutton Utd 0W | Draws 0 | Wrexham 1W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Wrexham in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Wrexham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sutton Utd's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.71x) against Sutton Utd's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 77/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.62
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Wrexham xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 1.00 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 3W 10D 16L from 29 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 7L across 29 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sutton Utd heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sutton Utd have managed 2W 6D 6L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.90 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sutton Utd have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Current Season
Wrexham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 3W 10D 16L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 15W 7D 7L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 0.86 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Wrexham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
2
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 0, Wrexham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 64%, Wrexham 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sutton Utd) and 29% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 36%; Sutton Utd have failed to score in 29% of games; Wrexham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 43% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 29% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Wrexham tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Sutton Utd 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Sutton Utd 1-2 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.43 xG and Wrexham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Wrexham attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 77/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 46% | Draw 28% | Wrexham 26%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 45%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.66. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.