Sutton Utd 1-0 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Colchester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VBS Community Stadium plays host to Sutton Utd versus Colchester in League Two, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sutton Utd have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sutton Utd have posted 5W 2D 3L at VBS Community Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Colchester (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sutton Utd, 0.80 for Colchester — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sutton Utd, 0 for Colchester and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 3–2 with Sutton Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Colchester half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 48% versus Colchester 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 44% | Colchester 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.34 xG and Colchester 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 0.945 / defence 0.992 | Colchester attack 0.745 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.093. Data: 66 Sutton Utd games / 66 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 49% | Draw 29% | Colchester 22%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Colchester 4.55. Sutton Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Sutton Utd 50% | Colchester 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 49% | Draw 29% | Colchester 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Sutton Utd 1.34 / Colchester 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 0.945 / def 0.992 | Colchester attack 0.745 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Colchester xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Colchester kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Colchester?
Sutton Utd 1 - 0 Colchester.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Colchester part of?
Sutton Utd vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 49% chance of winning, Colchester a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sutton Utd and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Colchester?
Record (2 meetings): Sutton Utd 2W | Draws 0 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Colchester in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Colchester (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (0.94) and Colchester's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Colchester's attack (0.74x) against Sutton Utd's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.47
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.15
0.81
Colchester xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.81 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Sutton Utd have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 28W 15D 23L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester's form line: 17W 18D 31L from 66 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sutton Utd are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Colchester.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sutton Utd have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (19W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Colchester have gone 8W 5D 20L from 33 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Colchester in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 games (1.50 PPG), while Colchester have gone 17W 18D 31L in their last 66 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Colchester away?
Sutton Utd's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 1.94 PPG; Colchester away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Colchester in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won 4-1 on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sutton Utd have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Colchester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sutton Utd
2
Draws
1
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Colchester?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 3, Colchester have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Colchester?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 48%, Colchester 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sutton Utd) and 48% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Colchester in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 42% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 48% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Colchester tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Colchester in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sutton Utd edge out Colchester 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Colchester 1-0 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.34 xG and Colchester 0.81 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colchester landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Colchester attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 49% | Draw 29% | Colchester 22%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 44%, Colchester 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Colchester's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.