Stockport County 3-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Crawley Town.

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Analysis

Crawley Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stockport County's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Stockport County have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Crawley Town have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Stockport County against 1.50 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Stockport County, 1 for Crawley Town and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2023, ended Stockport County 2–1 Crawley Town — a Stockport County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 47% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 37% | Crawley Town 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.75 xG and Crawley Town 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.864 / defence 0.795 | Crawley Town attack 0.772 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.209. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Crawley Town's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 51 games and Crawley Town's last 51.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 61% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.63 | Draw 4.24 | Crawley Town 6.60. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 30% (last 10 away games).

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