Notts County 3-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Notts County face Accrington ST.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 5 games: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Accrington ST (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 80% and Accrington ST 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Notts County 80% | Accrington ST 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.73 xG and Accrington ST 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.129 / defence 1.209 | Accrington ST attack 0.847 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.209. Notts County's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Notts County's last 5 games and Accrington ST's last 5.
Result probabilities: Notts County 49% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 27%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.06 | Draw 4.13 | Accrington ST 3.68. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Notts County's last 5 games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Notts County 80% (last 5 games) | Accrington ST 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 6 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 49% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Notts County 1.73 / Accrington ST 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.129 / def 1.209 | Accrington ST attack 0.847 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Notts County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Accrington ST xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Notts County vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Notts County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Notts County vs Accrington ST kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Notts County 3 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Notts County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Accrington ST part of?
Notts County vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 6) (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 49% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Notts County and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Notts County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.13x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.85x) against Notts County's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Notts County's last 5 games and Accrington ST's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.13
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.97
1.24
Accrington ST xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Notts County vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Notts County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Notts County and 1.24 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Notts County against 2.00 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Notts County's scoring rate against Accrington ST's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Accrington ST in 60%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
Notts County (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Notts County
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Notts County vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Notts County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Notts County and Accrington ST, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won Accrington ST 0-4 Notts County on 17 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Notts County vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Accrington ST?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Notts County have won 4, Accrington ST have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Notts County and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Accrington ST 0-4 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Accrington ST?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Notts County, 60% for Accrington ST — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Notts County and 60% for Accrington ST. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Notts County vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Notts County and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Notts County's games and 60% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Notts County and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Notts County's matches and 60% of Accrington ST's.
Do Notts County and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Notts County's recent matches and 100% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Accrington ST 3-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.73 xG and Accrington ST 1.24 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Accrington ST attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 49% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 27%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 80%, Accrington ST 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 2.00 PPG, Accrington ST 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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