Notts County 0-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Crewe at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crewe have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Notts County 1.40 PPG, Crewe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Crewe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Notts County's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Crewe winning.
It is worth noting that Crewe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 60% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 60% | Crewe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.05 xG and Crewe 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.995 / defence 0.971 | Crewe attack 0.917 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.087. Data: 83 Notts County games / 83 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Crewe 32%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Crewe 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | Crewe 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Crewe 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Notts County 1.05 / Crewe 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.995 / def 0.971 | Crewe attack 0.917 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Notts County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crewe xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Crewe kick off?
Notts County vs Crewe kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Notts County 0 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Notts County vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Crewe part of?
Notts County vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 37% chance of winning, Crewe a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Notts County and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
Record (3 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 0 | Crewe 3W.
What form are Notts County and Crewe in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Crewe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Notts County's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.27
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.02
0.97
Crewe xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Notts County and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Notts County and 0.97 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County's recent record stands at 35W 17D 31L from 83 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 33W 27D 23L across 83 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.47 PPG, Crewe on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 21W 6D 14L from 41 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 14W 17D 10L across 41 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 83 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Crewe in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 35W 17D 31L in their last 83 games (1.47 PPG), while Crewe have gone 33W 27D 23L in their last 83 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Crewe away?
Notts County's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.68 PPG; Crewe away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Notts County or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Crewe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
1
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Crewe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Notts County 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 58%, Crewe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Notts County) and 34% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crewe in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Notts County's games and 56% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Notts County's recent games and 34% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Crewe tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Crewe in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Notts County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 38, as Notts County and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.05 xG and Crewe 0.97 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Crewe attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Crewe 32%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 60%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Crewe's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.47 PPG, Crewe 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.