Mansfield Town 2-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to One Call Stadium to face Mansfield Town in League Two (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mansfield Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Accrington ST have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Mansfield Town's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Mansfield Town's games and 70% of Accrington ST's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Mansfield Town edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2023, ended Mansfield Town 3–0 Accrington ST — a Mansfield Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Accrington ST 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 53% | Accrington ST 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 2.31 xG and Accrington ST 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.223 / defence 1.010 | Accrington ST attack 0.876 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.323. Accrington ST's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 89 games and Accrington ST's last 43.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 63% | Draw 19% | Accrington ST 18%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.59 | Draw 5.24 | Accrington ST 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.31 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 42 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 63% | Draw 19% | Accrington ST 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Mansfield Town 2.31 / Accrington ST 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.223 / def 1.010 | Accrington ST attack 0.876 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Accrington ST xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST?
Mansfield Town 2 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 63% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mansfield Town and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (1.22) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.88x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 89 games and Accrington ST's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.24
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
3.48
1.17
Accrington ST xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
2%
55.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.17 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 89 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 43W 25D 21L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 26W 20D 43L from 89 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 44 home games (20W 15D 9L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 11W 10D 23L from their last 44 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.08 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 43W 25D 21L in their last 89 games (1.73 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 26W 20D 43L in their last 89 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.70 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.98 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Accrington ST?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 April 2024: Mansfield Town 2-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Accrington ST?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 61%, Accrington ST 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mansfield Town) and 52% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Accrington ST in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mansfield Town's games and 50% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mansfield Town and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 52% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 66% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Accrington ST 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Accrington ST 2-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 2.31 xG and Accrington ST 1.17 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Accrington ST attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 63% | Draw 19% | Accrington ST 18%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 53%, Accrington ST 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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