Exeter City vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and York meet at St James Park in League Two, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park.
York (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, York have posted 0W 3D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Exeter City, 1.30 for York — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Exeter City, 1 for York and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with York winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
York half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 29% versus York 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Exeter City 21% | York 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.67 xG and York 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.847 / defence 0.695 | York attack 0.890 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. York bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Exeter City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Exeter City's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Exeter City games / 14 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 59% | Draw 27% | York 14%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | York 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Exeter City (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Exeter City 40% | York 86% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 59% | Draw 27% | York 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Exeter City 1.67 / York 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.847 / def 0.695 | York attack 0.890 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.71
York xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs York kick off?
Exeter City vs York is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at St James Park.
Where is Exeter City vs York being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs York part of?
Exeter City vs York is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs York?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 59% chance of winning, York a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs York?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Exeter City and York will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and York?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 0 | York 1W.
What form are Exeter City and York in?
Exeter City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. York (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 0.85x the league average against York's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York's attack (0.89x) against Exeter City's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.71
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.38
0.71
York xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
3%
38.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.71 for York, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs York?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Exeter City against 1.43 for York. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Exeter City's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Exeter City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Exeter City have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; York in 71%.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and York in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while York have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or York away?
Exeter City's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 2.14 PPG; York away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Exeter City or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, York in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Exeter City
0
Draws
1
York
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and York?
From 1 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 0, York have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and York last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when York 2-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and York?
York have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 29%, York 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Exeter City and 43% for York.
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Exeter City's games and 86% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Exeter City vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Exeter City's recent games and 43% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and York tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, York in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →