Crewe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crewe at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 3 as Crewe welcome Crawley Town to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Crewe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 3W 1D 6L at Alexandra Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Crewe) versus 1.30 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Crewe, 1 for Crawley Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 44% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 31% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.80 xG and Crawley Town 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.050 / defence 0.935 | Crawley Town attack 0.717 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.090. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Crewe games / 2 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crewe 62% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 14%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Crawley Town 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Crewe (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 30% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 62% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Crewe 1.80 / Crawley Town 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.050 / def 0.935 | Crawley Town attack 0.717 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Crewe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Crawley Town xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Crewe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Crewe 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Crewe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Crawley Town part of?
Crewe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 62% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crewe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
Record (5 meetings): Crewe 3W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crewe's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.13
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.53
0.73
Crawley Town xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
43.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Crewe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Crewe and 0.73 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 17W 17D 14L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town's form line: 12W 10D 26L from 48 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Crewe are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 4D 15L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 17W 17D 14L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Crawley Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.50 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Crewe or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Crewe's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 6, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Crawley Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 38%, Crawley Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Crewe) and 67% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Crewe's recent matches and 46% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Crewe's recent games and 67% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.80 xG and Crawley Town 0.73 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 62% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 14%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 31%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.