Crawley Town 0-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tranmere at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Tranmere encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 28 as Crawley Town welcome Tranmere to The People's Pension Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 3W 3D 4L at The People's Pension Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Tranmere have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Tranmere have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tranmere are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Tranmere and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Tranmere winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Tranmere trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 67% versus Tranmere 21%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crawley Town 54% | Tranmere 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.00 xG and Tranmere 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.966 / defence 1.371 | Tranmere attack 0.726 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.139. Data: 24 Crawley Town games / 25 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 35% | Tranmere 36%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Tranmere 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tranmere are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tranmere offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 80% | Tranmere 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 35% | Tranmere 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Crawley Town 1.00 / Tranmere 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.966 / def 1.371 | Tranmere attack 0.726 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Tranmere xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Tranmere kick off?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Crawley Town vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Tranmere part of?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 29% chance of winning, Tranmere a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Tranmere 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Tranmere in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Tranmere (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.97x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
29%
3.43
35%
2.87
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Tranmere xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.13 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 5D 10L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tranmere carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.08 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Tranmere in 21%.
Defensively: Tranmere in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Tranmere away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.36 PPG; Tranmere away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Tranmere in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tranmere have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Tranmere have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tranmere see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 82%, Tranmere 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Crawley Town) and 18% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Tranmere in 46%; Tranmere in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 82% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 27% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Crawley Town's recent games and 18% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Tranmere tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tranmere edge out Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Crawley Town 0-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.00 xG and Tranmere 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.37 against Tranmere attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 29% | Draw 35% | Tranmere 36%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Tranmere 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Tranmere's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Tranmere arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.