Accrington ST 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Gillingham travel to The Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Accrington ST haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Accrington ST at The Wham Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gillingham haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gillingham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Accrington ST, 3 for Gillingham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 52% versus Gillingham 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 52% | Gillingham 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.24 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.963 / defence 1.062 | Gillingham attack 0.926 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.129. Data: 46 Accrington ST games / 46 Gillingham games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 39% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Gillingham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gillingham (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Accrington ST 50% | Gillingham 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 39% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Accrington ST 1.24 / Gillingham 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.963 / def 1.062 | Gillingham attack 0.926 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gillingham xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 39% chance of winning, Gillingham a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Record (6 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 3W.
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.46
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
Gillingham xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.11 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 14D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. Accrington ST haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (14W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. Gillingham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.09 PPG, Gillingham on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 5W 11D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (4W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.89 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Pre-Season
Gillingham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 12W 14D 20L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 14W 16D 16L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.13 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gillingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 52%, Gillingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 48% for Accrington ST and 22% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 35% of games; Gillingham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 52% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Accrington ST's recent games and 22% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.24 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 39% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 32%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 52%, Gillingham 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.09 PPG, Gillingham 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.