Wrexham 1-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 15 as Wrexham welcome Mansfield Town to STōK Cae Ras. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wrexham have posted 9W 1D 0L at STōK Cae Ras — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wrexham 1.80 PPG, Mansfield Town 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wrexham, 0 for Mansfield Town and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Wrexham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 47% versus Mansfield Town 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 52% | Mansfield Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.60 xG and Mansfield Town 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.207 / defence 0.857 | Mansfield Town attack 1.126 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.208. Data: 13 Wrexham games / 12 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Mansfield Town 3.57. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 50% | Mansfield Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Wrexham 1.60 / Mansfield Town 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.207 / def 0.857 | Mansfield Town attack 1.126 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Wrexham vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Wrexham 1 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Wrexham vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Mansfield Town part of?
Wrexham vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 48% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wrexham and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Mansfield Town in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.21) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.04
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.17 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wrexham's recent record stands at 33W 14D 11L from 58 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 10L across 58 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.95 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 22W 4D 2L from 28 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 15W 7D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wrexham are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.90 scored and 1.05 conceded. Mansfield Town's attacking output running into Wrexham's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 66%.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 33W 14D 11L in their last 58 games (1.95 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 31W 17D 10L in their last 58 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Mansfield Town away?
Wrexham's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.50 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wrexham and Mansfield Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Wrexham have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Wrexham's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Mansfield Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Mansfield Town?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 46%, Mansfield Town 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Wrexham and 61% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Wrexham's games and 71% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Wrexham's matches and 61% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Wrexham and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Mansfield Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Mansfield Town 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.60 xG and Mansfield Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Mansfield Town attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 28%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 52%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.95 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.