Wrexham 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
STōK Cae Ras plays host to Wrexham versus Lincoln in League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wrexham have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham at STōK Cae Ras this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Wrexham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 45% versus Lincoln 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 52% | Lincoln 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.50 xG and Lincoln 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.292 / defence 0.736 | Lincoln attack 0.906 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.117. Wrexham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wrexham's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Wrexham games / 62 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 55% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 19%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Lincoln 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 40% | Lincoln 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 55% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Wrexham 1.50 / Lincoln 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.292 / def 0.736 | Lincoln attack 0.906 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Lincoln xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Lincoln kick off?
Wrexham vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Wrexham 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Wrexham vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Lincoln part of?
Wrexham vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 55% chance of winning, Lincoln a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wrexham and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wrexham and Lincoln in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.29x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.91x) against Wrexham's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.82
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.24
0.74
Lincoln xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
4%
24.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.74 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wrexham come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 14D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.61 PPG from 62 outings (27W 19D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Wrexham against 1.61 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wrexham's home form reads 24W 4D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.61 points per game from 31 outings (13W 11D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.42 scored and 0.97 conceded. Wrexham's scoring rate against Lincoln's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 35W 14D 13L in their last 62 games (1.92 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 27W 19D 16L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Lincoln away?
Wrexham's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.45 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wrexham
0
Draws
0
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Lincoln?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 2, Lincoln have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Lincoln 0-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Lincoln?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 45%, Lincoln 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Wrexham) and 32% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Wrexham's recent matches and 48% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Wrexham's recent games and 32% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Lincoln tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Lincoln 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.50 xG and Lincoln 0.74 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Lincoln attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 55% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 19%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 52%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lincoln's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.92 PPG, Lincoln 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.