Stockport County 1-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 4 as Stockport County welcome Bradford to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 8W 2D 0L at Edgeley Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Bradford and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Bradford 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 43% | Bradford 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.56 xG and Bradford 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.170 / defence 0.853 | Bradford attack 0.716 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.087. Data: 49 Stockport County games / 3 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 27% | Bradford 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Bradford 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 70% | Bradford 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 27% | Bradford 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Stockport County 1.56 / Bradford 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.170 / def 0.853 | Bradford attack 0.716 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Bradford xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Bradford kick off?
Stockport County vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Bradford?
Stockport County 1 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Stockport County vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Bradford part of?
Stockport County vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 58% chance of winning, Bradford a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stockport County and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
Record (4 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 3 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.17) and Bradford's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
58%
1.73
27%
3.64
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.22
0.66
Bradford xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
32.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.66 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County's recent record stands at 25W 15D 9L from 49 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 12L across 49 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.84 PPG, Bradford on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 16W 5D 3L from 24 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 5W 9D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.39 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 25W 15D 9L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Bradford have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Bradford away?
Stockport County's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.21 PPG; Bradford away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bradford have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stockport County
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 54%, Bradford 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stockport County) and 42% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bradford in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stockport County's recent matches and 54% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stockport County's recent games and 42% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Bradford tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bradford in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.56 xG and Bradford 0.66 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Bradford attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 27% | Bradford 15%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 43%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.84 PPG, Bradford 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.