Stevenage 2-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Northampton at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Northampton travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 December 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage at Lamex Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Northampton — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.00 (Northampton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stevenage, 3 for Northampton and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (62 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Northampton in-play tendencies (62 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Northampton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Northampton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.735 / defence 0.964 | Northampton attack 0.963 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.123. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Stevenage games / 63 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 30% | Northampton 35%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Northampton 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 30% | Northampton 80%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 30% | Northampton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Stevenage 1.03 / Northampton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.735 / def 0.964 | Northampton attack 0.963 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Northampton xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Northampton kick off?
Stevenage vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Stevenage 2 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Stevenage vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Northampton part of?
Stevenage vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 35% chance of winning, Northampton a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stevenage and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 1 | Northampton 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.73x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.31
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
Northampton xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.04 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 24W 18D 20L from 62 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 26L across 62 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.45 PPG, Northampton on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 14W 10D 8L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 games (1.45 PPG), while Northampton have gone 21W 15D 26L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Northampton away?
Stevenage's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.62 PPG; Northampton away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Northampton in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Northampton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stevenage
2
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
From 10 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Northampton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Northampton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stevenage) and 56% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 28% of games; Northampton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 62% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stevenage's recent games and 56% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Northampton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Northampton in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Northampton 2-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.96 against Northampton attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 35% | Draw 30% | Northampton 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Northampton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (62 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.45 PPG, Northampton 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.